Modeling and Forecasting Awassa Lake Level Fluctuation

Habtom, G. Michael (2007) Modeling and Forecasting Awassa Lake Level Fluctuation. Masters thesis, Addis Ababa University.

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Abstract

Lake Awassa is located in the central main Ethiopian rift valley. The Lake is important water resource in the study area and is used for irrigation, municipal and domestic water supplies as well as recreational purposes. Beside its importance, the level of the lake has changed dramatically over the past two decades. Because of this, the lake has attracted considerable attention in recent years especially when the lake flooded the surrounding area including Awassa town which is established adjacent to the lake. Fundamental for understanding the lake level fluctuation requires knowledge of the lake's water balance and its response to human induced and climatic changes in the hydrologic regime. The present study develops a water balance forecast model for Lake Awassa. The model uses annual values of surface runoff (gauged and ungauged), evaporation, precipitation and groundwater outflow to simulate past lake levels. For this reason, the model was calibrated using multiple linear regressions and ARIMA model fit using SPSS software. The calibrated model was verified and used to forecast future lake level based on various selected applications and assumptions. The model result shows that the surface runoff and evaporation accounts about 81% and 38% in short term lake level fluctuation but in long term lake level fluctuation precipitation and evaporation accounts 45% and 73%respectively. This is mainly the result of land use/cover changes which causes the runoff to increase and evaporation to decrease. If this continues the lake would be a treat to the surrounding area and the town might be at risk if remedial measures are not considered. Although the environmental implications of a given lake level are beyond the scope of this study, the model provides an essential tool for water policy and management decisions in the Awassa catchment.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QE Geology T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Divisions:	Africana
Depositing User:	Selom Ghislain
Date Deposited:	23 May 2018 10:57
Last Modified:	23 May 2018 10:57
URI:	http://thesisbank.jhia.ac.ke/id/eprint/4055

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