Abdurahman, Mohammed Jemal (2017) Long Term Demand-Forecasting and Generation Expansion Planning of the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP). Masters thesis, Addis Ababa University.
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Abstract
In the upcoming decade, Ethiopia is expected to experience high economic, Industrial and social growth. As a result, In addition to the growth of the existing electricity demands, the Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) expects new customer demands from neighboring countries, from Irrigation & Transportation systems and New Industrial and manufacturing customers. Therefore, it is required that these new demands requested be considered during the generation expansion planning of the country. Moreover, it is also required to take into consideration of the uncertainty of the demand driving parameters such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Population growth of the country in order to make an accurate load forecasting. This thesis, in addition to introducing the new demand requests into its forecast, it also applied a stochastic demand forecasting method to consider the uncertainty of the demand driving parameters of the GDP and Population growth of the country. In this stochastic method of demand forecasting two Scenarios, each having different forecasted GDP data are considered. The 1st Scenario considered a moderate GDP forecast, which was forecasted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) until 2028. The 2nd Scenario considered the country’s 2028 Target GDP data obtained from MOFED (Ministry of Finance and Economic Development). The historical population data of the country (until 2014) was collected from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia and the United Nations. Based on these data the electricity demand forecast and Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) of the year 2028 is done for both the scenarios. Using the Scenario-1 GDP data, a peak demand of 12,450 MW is estimated for the year 2028. While, in the 2nd Scenario a peak demand of 13,319 MW is estimated. Comparing the Generation Expansion Planning results of the 2 Scenarios, for the year 2028, it is recommended to construct the Scenario-2 selected plants of Beko-Abo, Gibe IV, UpperMandeya, Karadobi and Tams with a total cost of $3,190 million.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Demand Forecasting, Stochastic Forecast, Generation Expansion Planning, Optimization, Gross Domestic Product. |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
| Divisions: | Africana |
| Depositing User: | Andriamparany Edilbert RANOARIVONY |
| Date Deposited: | 31 Oct 2018 09:51 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Oct 2018 09:51 |
| URI: | http://thesisbank.jhia.ac.ke/id/eprint/7216 |
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