Cellular Automata Model Based Urban Sprawl Mapping: A Case of Mekelle City, Ethiopia

Berhanu, Kidane Wolde michael (2017) Cellular Automata Model Based Urban Sprawl Mapping: A Case of Mekelle City, Ethiopia. Masters thesis, Addis Ababa University.

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In Mekelle city, urban growth and rapid urbanization are recognized facts for urban sprawl. This study aims to study the urban land-use change and modeling for the city. Coupling remote sensing, GIS and Cellular Automata Markov Chain model were applied to analyze the urban land-use urban sprawl, predict its magnitude, trends and spatial pattern; on the city of Mekelle. The data were i) the United States Geological Survey Landsat 4/5 TM and acquired in January 1989 ii) Quick bird image acquired in January 2005 from INSA and iii) Aerial photograph acquired in January 2016 from Mekelle city Integrated Land Urban Development (ILUD). The supervised classification algorithm of pixel-based approach was applied to identify the major urban land-use types in the study area. These were categorized in to 5 classes: built-up, agriculture, vegetation, water bodies and open area. Shannon's entropy approach was used to know the degree of dispersion, direction of built-up area's development and urban sprawl. In addition, Cellular Automata Markov modeling approach was applied to predict urban land-use change between 1989 and 2016. Land-use maps of 1989 and 2005 were used to produce a transition probability matrix for predicated urban land-use maps of 2016. The observed spatial extent increases from 1989 to 2016. That is, built-up, agriculture, vegetation and open area was increased by 17247.1 ha (64.11%), 1107.38 ha (41.29%), 2238.34 ha (8.32%) and 1384.03 ha (5.15%), respectively, while water bodies were declined by 4302.72 ha (-15.99%).This shows that urban sprawl is highest with built-up area. In the analysis that was made to the year 2016, the pattern and tendency of urban growth change for the year 2026 was also predicted. Therefore, the predicted land-use results for the year 2026, shows that the amount of urban landuse will increase by 12% from 2016 to 2026 at the expense of other land-use types. The results also shows the location and growth area for urban expansion of Mekelle which is towards in all directions. The urban sprawl phenomenon under these study areas was of a variable irregular pattern showing the combination of three sprawl patterns: expansion clusters, leapfrog and linear strip or horizontal along highways. This information is expected to support in determining the possible future directions of the city for the next 10 years. The city administration, Mekelle Municipality, urban planner and decision makers give the best solution for rapid expansion of urban sprawl by the help of RS and GIS.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Mekelle city, Urban sprawl, Remote Sensing, GIS, Cellular Automata Markov.
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
Q Science > Q Science (General)
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Q Science > QE Geology
Divisions: Africana
Depositing User: Selom Ghislain
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2018 13:46
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2018 13:46
URI: http://thesisbank.jhia.ac.ke/id/eprint/5307

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