Dynamic Risk Modeling and Analysis in Addis Ababa Road Construction Projects

Gashaw, Tesfaye (2016) Dynamic Risk Modeling and Analysis in Addis Ababa Road Construction Projects. Masters thesis, Addis Ababa University.

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Road construction projects involve many partners with different objectives, who are subjected to many risks in an uncertain environment. Since the construction industry is highly risk prone with complex and dynamic project environments creating an atmosphere of high uncertainty and risk, they tend to exhibit cost overruns and schedule delays. The purpose of this paper is to identify and assess the likelihood of occurrence and dynamic impact of project risks on project performances of road construction projects. This research has conducted an extensive literature review on construction project risk assessment and their techniques of risk analysis of road construction projects. From the literature review and experts’ opinion, road construction project risk factors were identified and grouped into client, consultant and contractor related risk factors. A structured questionnaire survey was conducted on selected samples of clients, consultants and contractors of road construction projects in Addis Ababa. The likelihood and impact of each risk on project cost and time was determined using Mean Weighted Rating (MWR). The dynamic risk analysis model was developed using system dynamics technique. The tools used for data analysis of the research are Microsoft Excel and Vensim® PLE. The survey findings indicated that the top five clients related critical risks are right-ofway problems, design changes by client, inadequate site investigation, slow decisionmaking and schedule pressure. Consultant related risks in their order of exposure were design change, incomplete design,delay in design work, design errors and poor quality of design. Contractual claims, shortage of plant and equipment, contractors’ poor management capacity, underestimation of construction costs and poor project planning & control were found the top five contractor risks in road construction projects. The result of dynamic risk analysis showed that contractor risks were the most critical risks that had a greater impact on project cost and time. The developed models provide invaluable information to clients, consultants and contractors of road construction projects regarding the likely impacts of significant risk factors on project cost and time.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
T Technology > T Technology (General)
T Technology > TF Railroad engineering and operation
T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Divisions: Africana
Depositing User: Andriamparany Edilbert RANOARIVONY
Date Deposited: 10 Aug 2018 11:59
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2018 11:59
URI: http://thesisbank.jhia.ac.ke/id/eprint/8094

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