Mutuma, Munyua Philip (2009) Ex-Ante Analysis of Rural Electricity Demand and Environmental Benefits: The Case of Gura Small Hydro Power Project, Kenya. Masters thesis, University of Nairobi.
![[img]](http://thesisbank.jhia.ac.ke/style/images/fileicons/application_pdf.png) |
PDF (Ex-Ante Analysis of Rural Electricity Demand and Environmental Benefits: The Case of Gura Small Hydro Power Project, Kenya)
Ex-ante analysis of rural electricity demand and environmental benefits_ the case of Gura small hydro power project, Kenya.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (1MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
“Greening the Tea Industry in East Africa” (GTIEA), a global environmental facility (GEF) funded 4-year project, was officially started in August 2007 (EATTA/UNEP, 2008). Its objectives are to increase investments in small hydro-power development projects and reduce energy costs in the tea industry in countries covered by the East Africa Tea Trade Association (EATTA), improve reliability of power supply, increase power supply for rural electrification, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (EATTA/UNEP, 2008). GTIEA project supports potential small hydro-power developers (tea factories) by conducting feasibility studies and produce bankable reports on the basis of which these projects are expected to be funded by financial institution and the developers’ equity contributions. One such study, feasibility study on Gura small hydropower project in Kenya-March 2008, was carried out on the Gura river in the Aberdare Mountains, Nyeri District by IED. Gura small hydropower project is expected to serve four KTDA managed tea factories: Chinga, Iriaini, Gitugi and Gathuthi in the project area (KTDA 2005). In the Gura SHP feasibility study a finding was made to the effect that the actual household electrification rate was not known but was probably below 50% (IED, 2008 .pg 47-48). The study also reached a conclusion that there was no demand for rural electrification even though KPLC’s had planned to expand 11kV-lines to remote tea buying centres (TBC) by 100% by December 2007. These two findings of this study contradicted the Ministry of Energy rural electrification master plan of 2008 which found that the Kenya’s central region had an unmet electricity demand. The MOE rural electrification master plan of 2008 also found the mean monthly household electricity consumption to be 70kWh. The IED study did not quantify the expected environmental benefits of the reduced GHG emissions when the SHP project is completed from the society’s point of view, nevertheless. In view of these shortcomings of the Gura SHP feasibility study report, this study aimed at analyzing the rural electricity demand and the indirect environmental benefits of the project. A total of 212 households, approximately 50 each from a 20km2 area (or a radii distance of 2.5km) surrounding each of the 4 tea factories, were randomly sampled for the survey. The mean monthly electricity consumption and load demand was calculated from the data. The analysis of the factors that influence rural electricity demand was carried out using a double–logarithm demand model that was able to calculate own and cross elasticities of that demand. The doublelogarithm demand model was ran using the two-stage Heckmann selection model to first determine the factors that influence the probability of electricity connection and second the factors that influence electricity demand. Contingent valuation method (CVM) was used for valuation of the environmental benefits. Central tendency mean was used to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) value for the environmental benefits. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model was used to determine the variables that influence the communities’ WTP for the small hydro-electric project (SHP) construction in view of the perceived environmental benefits. The monthly current and projected rural electricity demand were found to be approximately 105MW and 543MW respectively. Total household’s income and the price of kerosene were found as the probable factors that would increase new electricity connections. Connection fee amongst households not connected to the national grid, the number of electric appliances amongst household on the national grid, price of electricity and the age of the household head were identified as the main factors that directly influence electricity demand. Other factor found to negatively influence electricity demand were the number of people living in the household and education level. Out of 212 respondents 193 were willing to contribute monthly for 2 years towards the project implementation for the perceived environmental benefits. The household’s mean WTP value for two years was KShs 4552 which translated to Kshs1399/tCO2 or US$20/tCO2 assuming that Gura SHP would install a 2.8 MW capacity power plant. Income and employment status were found to affect the WTP positively.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences |
| Divisions: | Africana |
| Depositing User: | NLANDU Ephraim DIKUIZA |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Sep 2016 13:25 |
| Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2016 11:40 |
| URI: | http://thesisbank.jhia.ac.ke/id/eprint/904 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |